Study warns of deadly consequences as childhood vaccination rates decline, putting millions at risk amid resurgence of measles and polio.

PARIS, June 26 — A new study has warned that global efforts to vaccinate children against life-threatening diseases are losing ground due to widening economic inequality, the lingering impact of Covid-19 disruptions, and the spread of vaccine misinformation — placing millions of lives at risk.

Researchers said these setbacks could fuel future outbreaks of preventable diseases, while recent cuts to foreign aid threaten to undo decades of progress in childhood immunisation.

The study, published in The Lancet, analysed vaccination rates across 204 countries and territories.

Despite alarming trends, there have been major achievements. A World Health Organisation (WHO) immunisation programme is estimated to have saved around 154 million lives over the past 50 years. Global coverage for vaccines against diseases like diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, measles, polio, and tuberculosis doubled between 1980 and 2023.

However, progress slowed during the 2010s, with measles vaccine coverage declining in nearly half of all countries — most significantly in Latin America. In more than half of high-income nations, at least one childhood vaccine saw reduced uptake.

The situation worsened during the Covid-19 pandemic, which disrupted routine immunisation services. Between 2020 and 2023, nearly 13 million additional children missed all vaccine doses, the study found.

This gap persists, especially in low-income regions. In 2023 alone, over half of the world’s 15.7 million unvaccinated children were concentrated in just eight countries — mostly in sub-Saharan Africa.

In Europe, measles cases jumped tenfold in 2024 compared to the previous year. In the U.S., measles infections surpassed 1,000 cases across 30 states last month, already exceeding 2024’s total.

Polio — once nearly eliminated — is also resurging, with rising cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and an ongoing outbreak in Papua New Guinea.

“Tragedy”

“Routine childhood vaccines are among the most effective and affordable public health tools,” said Jonathan Mosser, senior author of the study from the U.S.-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

“But global inequalities, Covid-related disruptions, and the spread of misinformation have all stalled immunisation gains,” he said.

Lead author Emily Haeuser, also from IHME, added that factors like armed conflict, displacement, political instability, economic hardship, and climate-related crises are worsening access.

The authors warned these challenges could derail WHO’s goal of vaccinating 90% of children and adolescents worldwide by 2030 and halving the number of unvaccinated children from 2019 levels.

Only 18 countries have met this benchmark so far, according to the study, which was supported by the Gates Foundation and Gavi, the global vaccine alliance.

Adding to the strain, U.S. foreign aid was significantly reduced earlier this year under President Donald Trump’s administration — a blow to international health programmes.

“For the first time in decades, global child mortality is likely to rise this year due to massive cuts in foreign aid,” said Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates in a separate statement Tuesday.“

That is a tragedy,” he added, pledging US$1.6 billion to support Gavi’s efforts. The vaccine alliance held a fundraising summit in Brussels yesterday. — AFP